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The workforce crisis of 2030

16.12.2014 Print

By 2030, the number of jobs in the world's largest economies will exceed the number of adults able to perform these jobs. A German HR expert Rainer Strack, Managing Director of the Boston Consulting Group, presented this surprising new finding at the TED @ BCG Berlin conference this October. He not only offered data confirming this assumption, but also recommendations on how to deal with this "workforce crisis".

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Strack's TED talk caled The workforce crisis of 2030 - and how to start solving it now is one of the few speeches at TED events which relate exclusively to human resources. Rainer Strack follows on the studies entitled The Global Workforce Crisis, Decoding Global Talent, and Creating People Advantage that he published in cooperation with his colleagues. The video of his speech was published online on December 3rd. Even though it hasn't been on very long, it is has already had 400,000 views.

2030: Not enough people, not enough skills

While in 2020, there will still be more job seekers than jobs in some leading economies (e.g. France, Italy, USA), a dramatic change will occur by 2030. The situation will turn around in most major economies, including China, Brazil and Russia. Many routine jobs will be replaced by technology, and not only in production. At the same time, there will be a significant problem with the lack of highly qualified people and a partial surplus of the less skilled. That has already become a big challenge for companies as well as governments which should focus more on education and upskilling.

How can this situation be dealt with? Workforce mobility is one option. Young people under 30 are interested in working abroad, but only part of the world is mobile today. People in Russia, Germany and the USA are the least interested in working abroad.

What can we do?

"Every company, but also every country, needs a people strategy, and to act on it immediately," says Rainer Strack. This "people strategy" should consist of four parts:

  1. A plan on how to predict supply and demand for various jobs and skills. Workforce planning will be more important than financial planning.

  2. A plan on how to attract great people - representatives of Generation Y, women and even retirees.

  3. A plan on how to educate these people and raise their qualifications.

  4. A plan on how to retain the best people i.e., to build a culture based on appreciation and quality relationships.

 

If you want to see more articles about TED talks, they are available under the TED talks tag in our Management section.

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Article source TED.com - TED is a nonprofit devoted to "Ideas Worth Spreading". 
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