Can we separate the wheat from the chaff and predict which new inventions will revolutionize our lives? Who should we look to? Should we trust often overenthusiastic technological gurus, or listen to cynics and skeptics? Teenagers are often the best prophets, claims the knowledge.insead.edu website.
Ask the right questions
To predict whether a new invention is going to be a game changer, you have to answer four fundamental questions.
- Does the new technology meet a fundamental need?
- Is it easy to use?
- Is it affordable?
- Is the right ecosystem in place?
It's only when the answer to all four questions is "yes," that there is a good chance that an invention is going to be revolutionary.
A few examples
A great example of this is the mobile internet. It had a difficult start, the first iteration met a need but wasn’t easy to use, wasn’t affordable and wasn’t a part of an ecosystem. The mobile internet only really took off after the launch of the intuitive iPhone. Fixed and low mobile data tariffs and an open ecosystem for application developers were the other two necessary conditions for today’s widespread usage.
New technology needs to be better than what is already on the market, otherwise it’s not worth learning how to use it. That’s why mobile payment systems haven’t really taken off in the developed world - we use debit and credit cards smoothly. However, in many developing economies, the absence of payment infrastructures makes the ability to pay by phone a real benefit.
Teenagers are our acid test
Anything that fits in well with the lives of teenagers can usually succeed - be it easy communications (WhatsApp), showing oneself in a good light (Facebook) or keeping things secret (Snapchat). Automation is also good (if doesn't leave us feeling useless), since it can free up our time. Generally speaking, the closer an invention comes to our basic instincts, the higher the chances are that it will really get big.
-jk-