Will there be a transportation revolution before 2030?

A US think tank RethinkX published a report predicting a fast transition from traditional cars to self-driving autonomous electric cars. These cars will, however, not be owned by people, but hailed as taxis. 

So far, the analysts have predicted a linear, incremental growth of electric vehicles. They have, however, considered only individually owned cars in their predictions, and haven’t taken the following advantages of electric and self-driving cars into consideration.

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1. Ride hailing will be much cheaper than owning a car, and because electric cars can last longer with heavy use, it will make economic sense for the ride-hailing cars to be electric.

2. In 2030, using autonomous electric robo-taxis could be 4 to 10 times cheaper per kilometre travelled than buying a new car, and 2 to 4 times cheaper than operating your own, old car.

3. Self-driving cars almost eliminate the possibility of accidents, the cost of insurance could be, therefore, far lower.

4. Because the robo-cars will be driven most of their lifetime, the depreciation cost per kilometre would be sharply reduced. Personal cars are only used 4% of the time.

5. Electric cars require less maintenance and last longer. If a typical gas vehicle lasts 300,000 kilometres at the most, an EV could easily last 800,000 km. Elon Musk has already talked about designing a Tesla that lasts 1,600,000 km (1 million miles).

As gas cars become less common, gas stations will start to close. It will be more difficult to get fuel. Car mechanic repair shops will start to close, and parts will get harder to find. The oil industry could eventually collapse.

-tk-

Article source Fast Company - leading U.S. magazine and website for managers
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