There are, of course, risks that may stop growth, but these are usually not too high. The biggest risks involve economic policy changes in the US and China.
This is the opinion of Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at IHS Markit, on the World Economic Forum website. He summarized his forecast for the most important 2018 trends of the world economy in the following ten points.
- The US economy will maintain its growth (2016: 1.5%, 2017: 2.3%, 2018: 2.6%).
- Europe's growth rate will slow slightly (down to 2.2% in the euro area and to 1.1% in the UK).
- Japan's growth rate will drop slightly (2017: 1.8%, 2018: 1.2%).
- China's growth rate will drop slightly (2017: 6.9%, 2018: 6.5%).
- The growth rate of developing countries will gradually improve (at an average rate up to 4.9%).
- Commodity prices will be volatile (depending on the geopolitical risks that drag them down).
- Inflation will continue to resist growth pressures (it will further decline in developing countries).
- The US Central Bank (the Fed) will continue to raise interest rates (March, September, December) and some other central banks will do the same
- The US dollar will strengthen but remain highly volatile (at the end of 2018, € 1 should be USD 1,15).
- Economic recession risks will remain low.
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